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THE WAGNER REPORT
New York Real Estate Market Snapshot: October - end 2025
A comprehensive analysis of current market dynamics, inventory levels, and pricing trends.
THE WAGNER REPORT
NYC Inventory Levels (October 2025): Supply Constraints Persist
5329
Resale Units Available
Current apartment resale inventory stands at 5329 units, but still below the healthy market range of 7,500-7,900 units.
2955
Pending Deals
2955 Pending deals with 1145 closings in October. 3500 pending deals is typical.
1,475
New Development Units
Total new construction inventory at a slight decrease from the usual 1550 making a total of 6804 with resale units.
2,135
New Listings
2,134 new units entered the market, significantly helping to alleviate inventory constraints.
Market Activity: NYC Momentum in October
Recent data for October indicates continued market activity, though with some shifts:
New Development Trends
Median price/ft for new development reaches $2,157/ft. Days on market for new development - 172 days.
Contracts Signed
760 contracts signed in October, with 900 being normal for a New York Market.
Supply-Demand Analysis
The market continues to operate with a significant inventory deficit, with current available resale units 28.94% below the minimum threshold for a balanced market. Despite a notable increase in new listings, supply constraints persist. This ongoing limited supply is likely contributing to pricing resilience.
Transaction Dynamics: Pending & Closed
Closings & Pending Deals
760 Contracts Signed
With 760 new contracts signed, this is below the normal level of 900. On-market properties are averaging 81 days on market for resales and 172 days for new developments.
Pending Deals
Properties currently under contract total 2,955, which is up 9.5% from the previous month, but remains below the typical 3,500.
Pricing Metrics: Shifting Dynamics and Strong New Development Premiums
$1.1M
Median Apartment Price
A slight decrease across all market segments
$1,327
Median Price Per Sq.Ft
Market-wide average decreased slightly
$2,157
New Dev. Price Per Sq.Ft
Up 16.7%. Commands a significant 50.9% premium over market average
4.4%
Median Discount
Slight increase in average reduction from asking price
While the median apartment price ($1.1M) and median price per square foot ($1,327/ft) have seen slight declines, the median discount has marginally increased to 4.4%, suggesting a minor adjustment in seller expectations. Notably, new development properties continue to demonstrate strong performance, with median price per square foot increasing to $2,157/ft, now commanding an impressive 50.9% premium over the market average.
Market Pressure Points
Price Adjustments & Market Time
1
1,328 Price Reductions
With 1,328 price reductions, approximately 16% of available inventory has now seen price adjustments, indicating a more widespread but still targeted pricing pressure across the market.
2
172 Days on Market (New Dev) 81 Days Resale
New development units continue to require significantly longer marketing periods (172 days compared to 81 days for resale), reflecting persistent buyer selectivity and price sensitivity at premium price points.
Market Balance Indicators
The market continues to exhibit inventory constraints, with 5,329 resale units and 1,475 new development units, remaining below historical balanced benchmarks (7,500+ resale, 1,550 new development). Despite this limited supply, transaction volume remains strong with 760 contracts signed (normal 900) and 2,955 pending deals (up 9.5%, normal 3,500), supporting pricing. The median discount of 4.4% indicates a market adjusting towards more typical discount levels, even amidst higher interest rates.
Market Segment Comparison
Resale Market
  • 5,329 available units
  • 81 days average on market
  • Price reductions: 1,328
  • $1,327/sq.ft median pricing
New Development
  • 1,475 available units across new projects (normal level 1,550 units)
  • 53 new development contracts signed
  • $2,157/sq.ft median pricing (significant premium)
  • 172 days average marketing period
The resale market continues to experience increased inventory and price cuts, with a slight rise in days on market to 81 days. Meanwhile, new development shows 1,475 available units, still below the normal level of 1,550 units. Contract activity is strong with 53 new development contracts signed, and the median price per square foot remains a robust $2,157/sq.ft, despite a longer average marketing period of 172 days.
Strategic Implications for Agents
Pricing Strategy
4.4% median discount suggests realistic pricing within 5% of market value is optimal for minimizing days on market, especially with 1,328 price cuts this quarter.
Inventory Opportunity
With available units still below balanced levels (5,329 resale and 1,475 new development), aggressive prospecting for potential sellers offers significant opportunity, especially with new properties on market now at 2,135.
Buyer Guidance
With pending deals up 9.5%) buyer education on competitive bidding strategies and quick decision-making processes is vital, as 12.6% of deals closed above ask price in September.
Next Steps
Monitor the increasing trend in price cuts (now 1,328) weekly to identify shifting sentiment and adjust pricing recommendations.
Track new development absorption rates by neighborhood, noting the slight decrease in available units to 1,475 and 172 days on market.
Prepare Q4 inventory forecasts based on the robust pending deals pipeline (up 9.5%) and the increase in new listings (2,135).
Adjust pricing strategies to account for seasonal patterns while recognizing current supply constraints and the median discount of 4.4%.
Economic Overview: Key Indicators
Macroeconomic Pulse
Labor Market:TBD
Government Shutdown
Inflation: TBD -
Government Shutdown
Mortgage Rates: Stable
Conforming mortgage rates are holding at 6.1%, maintaining support for housing demand. Applications are up 26+%.
Market-Specific Trends
Energy Prices: Mixed Signals
Gas prices down 10% (National Avg: $3.04, Oil $64.44/barrel (Break-even $60).
Equity Markets: Volatility Continues
Dow: 47861 (+937 points), S&P: 6911 (+176 points), NASDAQ: 23991 (+1038 points).
Consumer Confidence: Stagnant, Uncertain
Consumer spending and confidence is stagnant.
Overall, the economic landscape presents a mixed picture for real estate professionals, investors and speculators. While stable mortgage rates and GDP growth offer some positives, persistent inflation and declining consumer confidence could influence buyer behavior in the coming months. Monitoring these indicators closely will be key for strategic planning.